06.17
While NTT and Verizon are playing central roles shaping this future, China will play the greatest role in creating future disruptions in the component and equipment areas. This is simply because of the staggering demographics involved with the ongoing industrial transformation of China.
I think simply relying on the size of the Chinese population is the wrong strategy on which to base your business plan. History is full of similar (since forever people have been salivating over the possibilities of selling just one thing to every Chinese) philosophies and the carcasses of their failures (most recent: Rupert Murdoch’s sale of a majority stake in Pheonix TV.) In the particular case of FTTH in China I’m not sure there will be as big development as Mr. Schmitt suggests. The problem, I think, is that their won’t be enough suitable content to justify such an awesome roll-out. Unlike in the US, Japan and Korea…media in China (as everyone knows) is a tightly controlled affair through government pressure and content providers own self-censorship. It seems that in the case of the US, people’s push for content (such as video via Internet) has pushed the development of FTTH however that citizen based catalyst seems unlikely to happen in China where most people are quite happy to simply chat, search, game and download. I think then that the future of FTTH in China will depend heavily on how open the government becomes to content production (and with the dueling governmental interests in this area it is anyone’s guess if openess will ever take form.) This X factor then gives no clear guidelines for businesses thinking of investing in the “great” China future. Caution and a strategy that takes this into account would be my suggestion.
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